Eric MacNaughton, Senior Transportation Engineer at the City of Calgary, presented an overview of “The City of Calgary Transportation COVID Recovery Scenarios” for the UT-ITE seminar series on October 29, 2021.
MacNaughton opened the seminar by introducing the “Transportation COVID-19 Recovery Framework.” The framework outlines the short- to long-term plans of the City of Calgary to address the pandemic situation in three streams:
- Stream 1: Financial Response
- Out to Nov. budget adjustments
- Financial reporting with a COVID lens
- Stream 2: Flexible Service Plans
- Out ~ 18 months
- Triggers to drive service level changes
- Stream 3: Future of Transportation
- Out 20 years
- ‘What if’ scenarios due to COVID
MacNaughton focused on Stream 3, examining the medium- to long-term impacts on transportation as a whole, and devising a course of action.
Predicting the future is a complex task. Even if there is data to forecast trends, forecasting can be easily affected by unexpected situations like the pandemic. MacNaughton uses strategic foresight in the scenario planning tool by:
- thinking of plausible futures, not forecasts;
- analyzing stress-test assumptions; and
- reducing the chance of being caught by surprise.
Finding plausible scenarios is tricky, as the most probable future is not always the preferred future. A quote from one of MacNaughton’s colleagues summarizes it well:
“A really good scenario is plausible, but should also make you a bit uncomfortable.”
MacNaughton went on to explain that a good scenario will give his team something to explore or will push a boundary so they can find ways to respond appropriately.
MacNaughton described a few scenarios and talked about how they affected some categories of drivers and emerging trends from COVID that were consistent across all scenarios. He analyzed the scenarios and gathered individual recommendations resulting from workshops of different service groups to gain more insight on actions to manage risk and opportunities.
The actions were grouped by their relativity: some actions were common across all scenarios, and some were scenario-specific. MacNaughton found eight common actions that should be taken immediately because they were “low-risk, high-benefit.” Other actions were found suitable to carry out right away because they could provide a safety net for unforeseen events.
In the future, for example, new AI carrier technology may make use of transportation to decrease travel distances. City of Calgary Transportation can take action by offering new services to exploit this opportunity and generate revenue.
MacNaughton concluded his presentation with this thought:
“If we don’t like the future we see, we have the opportunity and the responsibility to change it for the better.”
Watch the presentation video recording
Resources
Transportation COVID-19 Recovery Scenarios Summary Report. A strategic foresight analysis for The City of Calgary exploring lasting impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic. The report includes three future scenarios, a series of recommended actions, and ongoing monitoring to track real-world conditions vs the scenarios.
Abstract
As the COVID pandemic began to take hold in Canada in March of 2020, the City of Calgary’s transportation department initiated several streams of work to manage the short- and longer-term impacts.
One of these streams involved the use of strategic foresight to create a set of plausible scenarios for Calgary after the pandemic. Based on a mix of research and quantitative modelling, the scenarios explored plausible impacts on the transportation system and urban growth patterns that may be triggered by the pandemic.
A series of short-term actions were developed to address the risks and opportunities that emerged, along with key indicators to track going forward.
This presentation will provide an overview of strategic foresight, the scenarios that were developed in 2020, and how they track compared to real-world conditions in late 2021. Highlights from the recommended actions and monitoring program will also be discussed.
About the speaker
Eric MacNaughton has just over 20 years of experience in transportation engineering and urban planning, including 15 years working at The City of Calgary. He has worked on a variety of projects at The City, including leading development of the 2009 Calgary Transportation Plan, creation of Calgary’s Electric & Low-Emissions Vehicles Strategy, and supporting The City’s COVID Executive Response Group in coordinating non-emergency response actions to the COVID pandemic. Following on the completion of the Transportation COVID Recovery Scenarios, Eric also became a member of the Association of Professional Futurists and is continuing to develop his strategic foresight skills.
Presented by University of Toronto ITE Student Chapter, UT-ITE.